Summary of the annual analysis of white phosphorus products in 2022

1. Overview of the white phosphorus industry

White phosphorus is also called white phosphorus. White or light white translucent solid. White phosphorus is in the middle reaches of the entire phosphorus chemical industry chain. The downstream demand distribution of white phosphorus is mainly concentrated in two major fields: phosphoric acid (43%) and phosphorus trichloride (37%), and its specific applications are also relatively extensive. Other uses of white phosphorus are mainly to produce sodium hypophosphite, phosphorus pentasulfide, red phosphorus, hexametaphosphate, phosphorus pentoxide, etc., and its consumption accounts for about 15% of the total consumption of white phosphorus.

2. Market analysis

According to bulk commodity data monitoring, the price of white phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou fell. At the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price of white phosphorus was 40,666.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year (December 31), the average price was 33,125 yuan/ton. The price fell during the year by 18.55%.

In the first quarter, the price of white phosphorus fluctuated sharply from January to March. The average price on January 1 was 40,666.67 yuan/ton, and the average price on March 31 was 37,000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 9.02% from January to March.

In January, the price center of gravity of the domestic white phosphorus market was downward. After the New Year's Day holiday, the operating rate of white phosphorus has increased, and the downstream phosphoric acid market has been running downwards. The downstream market is more resistant to high-priced white phosphorus. New orders in the white phosphorus market are scarce, and sporadic replenishment, and market transactions are weak. As of the end of the month, the mainstream quotation of white phosphorus in Yunnan was around 31,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation in Sichuan was around 34,000 yuan/ton.

In February, the price of white phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou was raised. The price of upstream phosphate rock has been raised, and the price has gone up. In March, the electricity price may be slightly raised, and the cost support is strong. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of white phosphorus in Yunnan was around 38,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan was around 38,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of white phosphorus in Guizhou was around 37,000 yuan/ton.

In March, the price of white phosphorus first fell and then rose. Overall, the price of white phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou has been lowered. Since the price of white phosphorus rose rapidly in February, since March, the downstream has been more resistant to high-priced white phosphorus, inquiries are general, and purchases are prudent. The price of white phosphorus manufacturers has been falling all the way. Until the end of March, the price of white phosphorus began to rebound from the bottom due to the news of Guizhou security inspection and production reduction. As of the end of the month, the mainstream quotation of white phosphorus was around 37,000 yuan/ton.

In the second quarter, the price of white phosphorus rose first and then fell from April to June, with the overall decline being the main trend. The average price on April 1 was 36,750 yuan/ton, and the average price on June 30 was 37,600 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 2.31% from April to June.

In April, the price of white phosphorus fluctuated mainly. The price of upstream phosphate rock was raised, and the coke market rose. Downstream phosphoric acid market prices are on the rise. The support from the upstream and downstream is strong, but the downstream is more resistant to the high price of white phosphorus, and the price is relatively stalemate. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of white phosphorus in Yunnan was around 36,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of white phosphorus in Sichuan was around 37,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of white phosphorus in Guizhou was around 37,000 yuan/ton.

In May, the market price of white phosphorus rose sharply, and the price of white phosphorus moved closer to the high end. The start-up load of white phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou has declined, and the overall market supply has decreased to a certain extent. There is still no significant increase in the start of construction in the wet season. At present, the spot is tight, and most manufacturers have no inventory. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of white phosphorus in Yunnan was around 39,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of white phosphorus in Sichuan was around 40,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of white phosphorus in Guizhou was around 39,500 yuan/ton.

Market price of white phosphorus in June The price of white phosphorus fell. Although the upstream phosphate rock market continues to focus upwards, the downstream demand is poor, the market price of phosphoric acid and phosphate has been lowered, and the operating rate of phosphate has dropped. There is insufficient support for the market on the demand side. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of white phosphorus in Yunnan was around 36,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of white phosphorus in Guizhou was around 37,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of white phosphorus in Sichuan was around 39,000 yuan/ton.

In the third quarter, the price of white phosphorus fell first and then rose from July to September, with the overall decline being the main trend. The average price on July 1 was 37,600 yuan/ton, and the average price on June 30 was 36,375 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 3.26% from July to September.

In July, the market price of white phosphorus dropped sharply. The price of the downstream phosphoric acid market continued to drop, and the phosphate market was weak and sluggish, and continued to be adjusted at a low level. The overall confidence in the white phosphorus market is lacking due to forced purchases to lower prices. Most white phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external quotations for the time being, and they mainly discuss one by one. By the end of the month, the mainstream quotation in the Sichuan white phosphorus market was around 29,000 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation in Guizhou white phosphorus market is around 27,000 yuan/ton.

In August, the price of white phosphorus first fell and then rose. On the whole, the price of white phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou rose. The white phosphorus market was weak in the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, power was limited in Sichuan, and white phosphorus enterprises stopped. In the Weng'an area of Guizhou Province, due to the impact of the blockade, the transportation of white phosphorus in some areas is restricted, which is more troublesome than before. Some companies in Yunnan area are overhauling and suspending quotations. The price of white phosphorus began to rise sharply. As of the month, the quotations of white phosphorus manufacturers in Guizhou were around 32,000 yuan/ton.

In September, the market price of white phosphorus rose this month. The price of upstream phosphate rock is at a high level, and the downstream phosphoric acid market is mainly rising. Recently, power cuts in some areas in Yunnan, and rumors of restrictions in Guizhou and Sichuan continue, which is good for the white phosphorus market, and the overall confidence in the white phosphorus market is acceptable. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of white phosphorus in Yunnan was around 36,000-37,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of white phosphorus in Sichuan was around 36,000 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of white phosphorus in Guizhou was around 36,500 yuan/ton.

In the fourth quarter, the price of white phosphorus fell first and then rose in October-November, with the overall decline being the main trend. The average price on November 1 was 36,375 yuan/ton, and the average price on December 31 was 33,125/ton, with a cumulative decline of 8.93% from July to September.

In October , the market price of white phosphorus rose first and then fell, and the overall price rose slightly. After the National Day holiday, white phosphorus moved upwards, and after a small rise, the market weakened. Downstream purchases slowed down, inquiries increased, actual transactions were cautious, and the market price of white phosphorus fell. In the second half of the month, the price of white phosphorus was relatively stable, and manufacturers had a strong willingness to raise prices. Most manufacturers' quotations were firm or suspended, and the actual transaction price in the market declined. Up to now, the manufacturer's quotation is 37,000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is mainly based on a single negotiation.

In November, the market price of white phosphorus fell first and then rose, and the overall price fell. In the first ten days of this month, the inventory of white phosphorus manufacturers increased, the market price dropped sharply, and the manufacturers basically did not quote externally. The price continued to drop to a low of 27,500 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and the market price dropped by 10,000 yuan compared with 37,250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At this time, traders bought bottoms, and the white phosphorus market came back from a desperate situation. The market price rebounded and rose, and then stabilized. As of November 28, the manufacturer's quotation is 32,000-33,000 yuan/ton.

In December, the price of white phosphorus rose first and then fell. In the first half of December, power cuts in Guizhou intensified, and white phosphorus production fell. In the second half of the month, the market demand gradually weakened, and the logistics in some areas were blocked. As the end of the year approached, the downstream purchasing intentions were not high, and the price of white phosphorus was lowered. As of the month, the price of white phosphorus was mostly in the range of 32,500-33,500 yuan/ton.

Production capacity of white phosphorus

my country's white phosphorus production capacity is distributed in provinces with relatively concentrated phosphate rock resources and hydropower resources, mainly in the four provinces of Hubei, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan. In 2022, the total production capacity of white phosphorus will reach 1.4485 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.73%. In addition, the time for the industry to operate above 60% is longer than 6 months. In addition, the consumption of white phosphorus is expected to reach 830,000 tons in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 4.80%. In 2022, China's total annual output of white phosphorus is expected to be 850,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.59%, and the average monthly output will increase to around 70,800 tons. From January to September, my country's white phosphorus output was 635,300 tons.

Upstream raw materials

Phosphate rock is a non-renewable resource. With years of mining, the storage capacity of domestic high-end grade phosphate rock has gradually declined. Coupled with the implementation of national environmental protection policies in recent years, the overall mining of phosphate rock has become more difficult. In the short term, phosphate rock will It is difficult for the tight supply situation in the stone market to be greatly improved. The phosphate rock data analyst of SunSirs believes that after the Spring Festival in 2023, the supply side of the domestic phosphate rock market will continue to be mainly tight, and the market price of phosphate rock will continue to increase in the short term. Keep collation high running.

domestic demand

In terms of phosphorus trichloride, my country's annual production capacity of phosphorus trichloride will be around 2.75 million tons in 2022, and the total output is expected to be around 1.87 million tons, with a start-up load of about 68%, which is a high level in recent years.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the total domestic phosphoric acid production capacity in 2022 will be 5.307 million tons, an increase of 18.72% over the same period last year, maintaining a growth trend. From the perspective of process distribution, thermal acid production occupies a large proportion. Judging from the situation of new installations, the production capacity of wet purification acid has increased significantly, and most installations have been extended downward to support iron phosphate products. In 2022, the total domestic phosphoric acid output will be about 2.5022 million tons, an increase of 18.59% over the same period last year.

3. Market Outlook Forecast

The white phosphorus analyst of SunSirs Chemical Branch believes that in terms of raw material supply, phosphate rock is a non-renewable resource, and the supply of phosphate rock is tight. The cost of raw materials for white phosphorus enterprises may continue to remain high. In terms of demand, the production capacity of phosphorus trichloride and phosphoric acid continues to increase, which will benefit the white phosphorus market. It is expected that the price of white phosphorus will have some room for upward adjustment in 2023.