The downstream demand is strong, and the price of caustic soda is expected to continue to rise

Since 2022, China caustic soda market prices have risen sharply and are currently on an upward trajectory. 

As of May 5, 2022, the average market price of liquid soda (32% ionic film) was reported at RMB1,287 per ton, up 32.0% from the beginning of the year, and the average price of liquid soda in the first quarter was reported at RMB1,114.6 per ton, up 124.4% year-on-year; the average market price of caustic soda (99% flake) was reported at RMB4,224 per ton, up 22.8% from the beginning of the year, and the average price of flake in the first quarter was reported at RMB4,051.0 per ton, up 106.7% year-on-year. The average price of caustic soda (99% caustic soda flake) was up 22.8% from the beginning of the year. On the supply side, China is the world's largest producer of caustic soda, and its domestic caustic soda production capacity has been growing slowly in the past five years. 2020 China's total caustic soda production capacity was 44.7 million tons per year, accounting for 44.8% of the world's total production capacity in that year.

In recent years, China's caustic soda industry capacity has been growing slowly. Taking liquid soda as an example, the effective capacity CAGR of domestic liquid soda in China from 2017 to 2021 is 1.17%. Among them, the effective capacity of domestic liquid soda in China is 42.889 million tons/year in 2021, an increase of 1.45% year-on-year. By the end of 2021, there were 158 domestic caustic soda producers in China, with a CR10 of 20.23%. The slow growth of production capacity is mainly influenced by policies. Caustic soda is a high energy consumption and high emission industry. By the end of 2020, the energy efficiency of China's caustic soda industry accounts for about 15% of the production capacity better than the benchmark level and 25% of the production capacity below the benchmark level.

The caustic soda industry is facing the reform of industrial structure. On the one hand, the policy has raised the entry threshold of the caustic soda industry and increased th