Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2023-01-31 Origin: Site
1. Price trend
According to data, the average ex-factory price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in China on January 1 was 11,466 yuan/ton, and the average ex-factory price of domestic 85 thermal phosphoric acid was 9,025 yuan/ton on December 31. In 2022, the domestic thermal phosphoric acid fell by 21.29% %, the highest price within the year was 11,490 yuan/ton, and the lowest price during the year was 7,920 yuan/ton.
According to the data, the average ex-factory price of 85 wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 10,200 yuan/ton on January 1, and the average ex-factory price of domestic 85 wet-process phosphoric acid was 9,083 yuan/ton on December 31. In 2022, the domestic wet-process phosphoric acid fell by 10.95% %, the highest price in the year is 11,200 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in the year is 8,500 yuan/ton.
2. Market Analysis
In 2022, the annual market trend of phosphoric acid will be volatile and downward. In the first half of the year, phosphoric acid first fell and then rose, operating at a high level. In the second half of the year, phosphoric acid fluctuated sharply and fluctuated. Price fluctuations this year have been smaller than last year. According to the monthly rise and fall chart in 2022, it can be seen that the biggest increase during the year was in September, with an increase of 14.67%. The biggest drop during the year was in July, with a drop of 19.68%.
The first stage
In the first half of 2022, China's domestic phosphoric acid market will first decline and then rise, fluctuating at a high level. Before the Spring Festival, the cost support was insufficient, the transportation capacity was limited, the downstream factories were on holiday, and the dealers were withdrawing from the market one after another. The market transactions were scarce, and the high-end phosphoric acid price dropped. After the Spring Festival, the price of phosphoric acid began to rise. In late March, affected by the news of Guizhou's security inspection and production cuts, the price of yellow phosphorus began to rebound from the bottom. In April, the price of phosphoric acid rose above 10,000 yuan, and the market center of gravity moved up. In May, the raw material white phosphorus rose strongly to about 40,000 yuan/ton, the cost support was strengthened, and the market supply decreased. Phosphoric acid business owners supplied old customers, and the price rose with the cost. In June, the price of white phosphorus, a raw material, fell from a high level, and the support of the cost side weakened. In addition, the downstream demand followed up generally, and the price of phosphoric acid was lowered.
In the second half of 2022, China's domestic phosphoric acid prices fluctuated wildly, with mixed ups and downs. Since July, the price of raw material white phosphorus has dropped again, and the cost support is weak. Coupled with the limited follow-up of downstream demand and the large supply of phosphoric acid, phosphoric acid manufacturers and distributors lowered their prices one after another. From the second half of August, yellow phosphorus, a raw material, became stronger, and phosphoric acid began to rise continuously. Due to power cuts and rising costs in Sichuan, most manufacturers stopped accepting orders, and dealers raised their quotations. The supply of phosphoric acid has tightened, and positive factors in the market have increased. In September, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus continued to rise, and the cost support of phosphoric acid was positive. Driven by the rise in raw materials, the phosphoric acid market has heated up. From the second half of October, the phosphoric acid market began to fluctuate and fall, fluctuating with the raw material market. At the end of the year, the price of raw material white phosphorus remained stalemate, downstream purchases were under priced, phosphoric acid cost support weakened, terminal demand for phosphoric acid was sluggish, new orders in the market were relatively small, and the focus of transactions in the phosphoric acid market moved down.
3. Annual data
In 2022, China's total domestic phosphoric acid production capacity will be 5.307 million tons, an increase of 18.72% over the same period last year, maintaining a growth trend. From the perspective of process distribution, thermal acid production occupies a large proportion. Judging from the situation of new installations, the production capacity of wet purification acid has increased significantly, and most installations have been extended downward to support iron phosphate products. In 2022, China's total domestic phosphoric acid production will be about 2.5022 million tons, an increase of 18.59% over the same period last year.
The downstream demand of the phosphoric acid market in 2022 is mainly in the industries of phosphate, food additives, surface treatment (phosphating and oxidation). About 40% of it is used to produce phosphate. Phosphoric acid is one of the main raw materials for lithium iron phosphate, and the iron phosphate industry has joined the demand.
4. Market forecast in 2023
Analysts believe that phosphoric acid will be at a high level in the first half of 2022, and the shocks will weaken in the second half of the year. In 2022, the production capacity of phosphoric acid will increase year-on-year. With the rapid development of new energy sources, downstream iron phosphate manufacturers have increased market demand for purified phosphoric acid. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will improve in 2023, and the production capacity will continue to increase.